Raw cashewnut market goes into a shell

KOCHI, JAN. 9:

Last fortnight, cashew prices slipped by 7 to 8 per cent as only a smaller volume was traded.

Buyers were picking up only low offers and were hesitant to pay higher rates, which most processors were asking for, according to market sources.

There was a difference of over 15 cents a pound between the highest and lowest offers.

Current levels are from $3.65 to $3.80 for W240, $3.40 to $3.60 for W320, $3.30 to $3.45 for W450/SW, $2.50 to $2.70 for Splits and Butts, $2.40 to $2.50 an lb for Pieces.

The domestic market and Chinese demand in Vietnam were also low key for quite some time. However, people expect Indian demand to pick up from January-end as the major consuming centres bought only very little for the past three months, Mr Pankaj N Sampat, a Mumbai-based dealer told Business Line.

The Raw Cashew Nuts (RCN) market appears to be dead, he said. There have been no sales in the Tanzania auctions for more than a month. Hardly a third of the crop has moved. Brazil is harvesting a normal crop. West African RCN stocks in India and Vietnam are moving slowly.

The Northern crops will start in March with an overhang of supplies from the 2011 crop and unless kernel demand picks up, sheller interest at the beginning of the season will be low, he said. In fact, both the kernel and RCN market are totally sluggish.

ROLLER-COASTER RIDE

The Cashew market has been on a real roller-coaster ride in 2011 with price for the benchmark W320 moving up from $3.75-$3.85 in Jan 2011 to $4.65-$4.75 (fob) in Jul/Aug 2011 and is now back to $3.80-$3.90 (fob) in Dec 2011, he said.

Despite this 25 per cent swing in the market, major moves were concentrated in a short period, from May to Oct 2011.

Upward move from $3.90-$4.00 to $4.65-$4.75 took place in 8 weeks between May and July 2011. Downward move from $4.65-$4.70 to $3.80-$4.00 took place in 6 weeks from early September to mid-October. In the last quarter of 2011, market has been moving sideways in the $3.80-$4.00 range. “We have seen a further drift to $3.40 to $3.60 range in the last two weeks”, he said.

Lower offtake last year is causing concern over prospects of demand in 2012.

The mess in the financial markets is adding to the uncertainty over demand prospects.

According to Mr Pankaj, there are some important facts/factors needed to be kept in mind, viz., that supply position is comfortable and will continue to be like that unless there are major problems in the northern Crops (harvested between March and July) which contribute over 70 per cent of the world production; Economic situations in Europe and US need to be watched closely.

Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/article2788306.ece