Cashew market revives after protracted lull

KOCHI, JAN. 16:

Trading in the cashew market picked up last week , after a protracted period of quiet.

Prices were in the range of $3.55 to $3.70 for W240 and $3.20 to $3.40 for W320 a pound (f.o.b.). However, trading in other grades remained dull. Nominal levels (for a pound, f.o.b.) for W450 were at $3.15 to $3.25; at $3.10 to $3.30 for SW; at $2.45 to $2.60 for splits; and at $2.25 to $2.40 for pieces.

DULLNESS IN RCN

Only small deals for spot parcels of 2011 crop took place in the raw cashew nut (RCN) market. West Africa RCN in India and Vietnam was traded in small volumes at prices ranging from $750 to $1,000 a tonne.

“Brazil is now talking of 2011-12 crop below the long-term average of 2.5 lakh tonnes compared with estimates of close to 3 lakh tonnes which were mentioned in October at the beginning of the harvest,” he said. Except for some damage in North Tamil Nadu due to the cyclone, there are no adverse reports about the upcoming 2012 crops in India, Vietnam and West Africa, he said.

SHIFT TO OTHER NUTS

In the main importing areas — North America and the European Union — there are reports of 10 to 20 per cent decline in usage during 2011. The decline could be attributed to higher prices and reduced supplies. Lower prices and improved availability should mean higher usage in 2012. It is impossible to put a figure to usage in the world's largest cashew consumer, India, but the overall feeling is that the expected growth in usage did not happen, a clear indication of “a definite shift to other nuts because of higher prices,” Mr Pankaj said.

Traditional preference for cashews over other nuts will definitely mean a quick shift back to lower prices, especially in a spot market like India.

Current RCN supplies are comfortable, especially considering the decline in usage in the last few months and the seemingly bleak prospects for the next few months. But most of it is in the wrong place, Africa, instead of India or Vietnam. And if RCN does not start moving soon, there could be a situation of tight kernel supplies for some time.

Although it is quite possible that kernel prices could drift lower, industry players believe that the downside is limited. There is a threshold below which RCN prices cannot go without affecting the collection of RCN (and consequently availability of kernels), they claimed.

Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/commodities/article2805950.ece