Cashew sees revival on fresh buying

KOCHI, FEB. 14:

The cashew market witnessed some revival last week in its activity with broken grades which were in the dumps for the last few weeks gained.

Overall, there was not much change in prices - range of trades/offers were W240 from $3.85 to $3.90, W320 from $3.30 to $3.45, W450 & SW320 from $3.15 to $3.30, Splits & Butts from $2.20 to $2.40, Pieces from $2.10 to $2.25 per lb (f.o.b). There is some interest for April forwards but no significant trades reported as buyers' ideas are at the lower end of the range.

Indian market was reasonably active but there was no increase in prices as buyers were only plucking the low-lying fruit – as there is no supply concern, there is no pressure to build inventory and they continue to buy “when needed”, according to Mr Pankaj N. Sampat, a Mumbai-based dealer.

FIRST ARRIVALS

After good activity at the end of January, the Raw Cashew Nut (RCN) market has become quiet again. Most shellers are waiting for indication of new crop pricing plus kernel demand for second quarter shipments before making any large purchases. There are some reports of trades for Benin around $1,050 and Ivory Coast (IVC) around $975 (c&f).

“In our view, these are speculative trades and we have to wait until March/early April to get a realistic idea of West African RCN pricing,” he said. The traditional interest for “first” arrivals and the additional interest from Brazil might keep the opening prices high.

If the pattern of periodic kernel buying continues for the next three-four months, prices will continue to move in the current range. If there is reduced activity during February-April, shellers will be slow in RCN purchases and this could lead to lower RCN prices when arrivals are in full swing.

KERNEL MARKET

Large buying for April-September delivery in the next six-eight weeks would result in a firming of kernel prices because at the current levels, shellers are unlikely to sell forwards at a discount in view of the uncertainty of RCN pricing. Unless the kernel market is very slow till April/early May, there are not much chances of a big decline in RCN prices.

The current market has factored in lower usage due to the high prices and the prospects of better supplies in this year compared to last year. Any deviations from this will affect the movement of the market. Asian usage can be expected to be better than last year with the current prices.

“Our feeling is that total 2012 usage cannot be lower than 2011 unless there is some dramatic development in external factors. Supply – as usual – will be uncertain until middle of the year,” he said

“We can expect market to move in the current range in the first half with a possibility of some softness in April/May if the crops are normal and the kernel demand is slow. Unless the RCN prices come down substantially, the downside in kernel prices is not much. We can also expect a gradual upward movement in kernel prices in the second-half of this year,” Mr Pankaj said.

Overall, the coming year is going to be an interesting one, every year is different.

Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/article2892874.ece